Home Run Derby odds to win, first-round matchups and best bets

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The 2023 Home Run Derby is scheduled to take place Monday, July 10th, at Seattle’s T-Mobile Park. Eight of the MLB’s top sluggers will duke it out for a $1 million cash prize.

While the defending champ, Juan Soto, won’t be participating, there is still a loaded field for Monday’s fan-favorite event. Two-time champion Pete Alonso is back for an opening-round rematch against Julio Rodríguez.

Let’s take a look at the 2023 Home Run Derby odds and matchups, as we offer our best bet predictions.

2023 Home Run Derby Winner Odds

Player (Team)Odds
Pete Alonso (Mets)+300
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays)+360
Luis Robert Jr. (White Sox)+500
Julio Rodriguez (Mariners)+550
Adolis Garcia (Rangers)+650
Randy Arozarena (Rays)+950
Mookie Betts (Dodgers)+1000
Adley Rutschman (Orioles)+1700

The odds for the winner of the Derby are led by Pete Alonso at +300, followed closely by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at +360. As the +300 betting favorite, Alonso’s implied win probability is 25%.

The 2023 MLB Home Run will air exclusively on ESPN at 8:00 PM ET. Who do we project walking away with the grand prize?


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Odds as of July 8th, 2023 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Browse the available DraftKings promo code to bet on the Home Run Derby.

Best Bets to Win Home Run Derby

While Alonso is likely going to be the most public play as he seeks revenge on Rodríguez, we project another top player as offering the best value. Toronto’s star first baseman Vladdy Guerro Jr. is a great pick to win the despite having a bit of a down year based on his metrics.

In the 2019 Home Run Derby, Guerrero Jr. set records for the most home runs in a single round (40) and total home runs (91). Although he finished as the runner-up to the Mets’ Alonso, he showcased his incredible power and ability to win this event in the future.

Guerrero leads the derby field in “no doubters” (61.5%), hard-hit rate (57.1%), and EV (94.5 mph), indicating that he’s making good contact and his home run numbers should increase post-All-Star break.

Guerrero Jr. has watched Pete Alonso win two Home Run Derbies and Juan Soto take the crown in 2022. With this year’s event featuring hometown star Julio Rodríguez and newcomer Mookie Betts, Guerrero Jr. will be motivated to prove himself as one of the premier power hitters in the league.

While Guerrero’s home run count for the 2023 season might not be as high as in previous years, his track record, experience, consistent batting average, and baseball lineage make him a great bet for the 2023 Home Run Derby.

Best Bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+360)

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2023 Home Run Derby First-Round Matchups Odds

PlayerOdds to WinPlayerOdds to Win
Adolis Garcia-140Randy Arozarena+115
Luis Robert Jr.-215Adley Rutschman+175
Pete Alonso-170Julio Rodriguez+140
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.-210Mookie Betts+170

In the MLB first-round matchups odds, Adolis Garcia is favored over Randy Arozarena with odds of -140 to +115. Luis Robert Jr. is heavily favored to win his first-round matchup against Adley Rutschman with odds of -215 to +175.

Pete Alonso is also favored in his first-round matchup against Julio Rodriguez with odds of -170 to +140. Lastly, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is favored to win his first-round matchup against Mookie Betts with odds of -210 to +170.

Odds as of July 8th, 2023 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Home Run Derby Matchup Predictions

The Home Run Derby is typically very unpredictable, which makes it one of the best parts of MLB All-Star Week. Just last year, for example, No. 8 seed Albert Pujols defeated No. 1 seed Kyle Schwarber in the first round by a 20-19 score.

While it’s hard to bet against heavy favorites Pete Alonso and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., we’ve identified some underdog value on Randy Arozarena in his matchup with Adolis Garcia. As of publishing, the Tampa Bay outfielder is a +115 underdog in his first-round matchup.

Arozarena has been impressive this season, hitting 15 home runs for the Rays and ranking among the league leaders in average exit velocity. His maximum exit velocity has been in the Majors’ 91st percentile or better for three of the last four years.

Arozarena’s gained some Home Run Derby experience during his first Minor League season in the Cardinals’ system, where he won a rain-shortened Derby before the 2017 Florida State League All-Star Game, which could prove valuable.

In this fun first-round MLB Home Run Derby matchup between close friends and former teammates, we’re taking the value of the talented Arozarena at an underdog price.

Adolis Garcia vs Randy Arozarena Prediction: Arozarena to Win (+115)

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